The major problem we face, however, is a growing capital base. You have heard that from us before, but this problem, like age, grows in significance each year. (And also, just as with age, it’s better to have this problem continue to grow rather than to have it old.?
然而我们面对的主要问题还是不断增加的资金规模,先前各位也听过类似的说明,不过这个问题就好象是一个人的身体健康与年纪的关系一样,随着时间的流逝,问题也越严重,(当然在这种情况下,我们是希望这个问题越严重越好)
Four years ago I told you that we needed profits of $3.9 billion to achieve a 15% annual return over the decade then ahead. Today, for the next decade, a 15% return demands profits of $10.3 billion. That seems like a very big number to me and to Charlie Munger, Berkshire Vice Chairman and my partner. (Should that number indeed prove too big, Charlie will find himself, in future reports, retrospectively identified as the senior partner.)
四年前我曾告诉各位若在未来十年,Berkshire想要每年维持15%的报酬,我们总共约要有39亿美元的获利,时至今日,这个数字暴增到103亿美元,对查理与我来说,这实在是无法承担之重,(当然若这个数字事后发现真的过大,大家或许会在以后的报告中,查理可能会另外个别署名资深合伙人)
As a partial offset to the drag that our growing capital base exerts upon returns, we have a very important advantage now that we lacked 24 years ago. Then, all our capital was tied up in a textile business with inescapably poor economic characteristics. Today part of our capital is invested in some really exceptional businesses.
虽然资金规模会影响到最后的投资报酬率,但同时我们也拥有另外一项以前没有的优势,过去我们大部分的资金都被绑在没有多大经济效益的纺织事业之上,如今部份的资金已转移到一些相当不错的事业。去年我将他们取名叫做七个圣徒水牛城日报、费区海默、寇比吸尘器、内布拉斯加家具量贩店、史考特费兹制造集团、喜斯糖果及世界百科全书等,今年七圣徒持续向前迈进,大家可以发现以历史投资成本的角度来看,他们的投资报酬实在是惊人,没有依靠财务杠杆,平均股东权益报酬率高达67%。
Last year we dubbed these operations the Sainted Seven: Buffalo News, Fechheimer, Kirby, Nebraska Furniture Mart, Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group, See, and World Book. In 1988 the Saints came marching in. You can see just how extraordinary their returns on capital were by examining the historical-cost financial statements on page 45, which combine the figures of the Sainted Seven with those of several smaller units. With no benefit from financial leverage, this group earned about 67% on average equity capital. In most cases the remarkable performance of these units arises partially from an exceptional business franchise; in all cases an exceptional management is a vital factor. The contribution Charlie and I make is to leave these managers alone.
虽然其中一部分的企业本身就是属于强势的企业,但优良的管理却是绝对必要的条件,查理跟我唯一可以做的就是让他们放手去干。
In my judgment, these businesses, in aggregate, will continue to produce superb returns. We’ll need these: Without this help Berkshire would not have a chance of achieving our 15% goal. You can be sure that our operating managers will deliver; the question mark in our future is whether Charlie and I can effectively employ the funds that they generate.
根据我个人的判断,这些企业总的来说,应该还会持续有好的表现,我们想要在往后年度继续维持15%报酬率的目标,绝对需要他们的支持,唯一的关键在于查理跟我是否能够有效地运用他们所贡献出来源源不绝的资金。
In that respect, we took a step in the right direction early in 1989 when we purchased an 80% interest in Borsheim, a jewelry business in Omaha. This purchase, described later in this letter, delivers exactly what we look for: an outstanding business run by people we like, admire, and trust. It’s a great way to start the year.
在这点我们做出了一个正确的决定,那就是买下位于奥玛哈Borsheim珠宝80%的股权,这项购并案会在后面说明,与我们当初的预期相符,一家优秀的企业由我们所欣赏且信任的人来经营,今年有一个好的开始。
Accounting Changes
会计原则变动
We have made a significant accounting change that was mandated for 1988, and likely will have another to make in 1990. When we move figures around from year to year, without any change in economic reality, one of our always-thrilling discussions of accounting is necessary.
1988年开始有一项重要的会计原则变动开始适用,展望1990年还会有一项变动,当经济现况没有改变,但会计帐面却必须将数字搬来搬去,我们一定会花一番工夫讨论一下影响层面。